One tonne is one thousand kilograms. It is also called a metric ton. It is about 2200 pounds or 10% larger than the standard US ton of 2000 pounds.

In 2020 the world produced about 20 million tonnes of copper. Here’s a chart of copper use:

“Transportation” includes automobiles. Right now about 3% of all vehicles sold in the world are fully electric. That’s about 2+ million EVs out of 75 million total vehicles sold globally each year.

Here’s another chart:

Can you see the problem?

A battery-powered, all-electric vehicle (BEV) needs much more copper than a conventional vehicle. 183 is ten times bigger than 18 and nearly four times bigger than 49. No matter how much copper your car needs now your future electric vehicle will need a lot more.

Where’s the copper going to come from? The rest of the copper consumers aren’t going to use less copper so that we can all have EVs. No, the copper will have to come from copper mines. And we will have to get really good at copper recycling!

The world’s biggest copper mine is in Chile. Minera Escondida produces about 1 million tonnes of copper annually or about 5% of the world’s supply. It supposedly has at least another ten years of life, and there is supposedly another 30 million tonnes of copper worth getting from that spot. I say “supposedly” because no one is really sure. There may be plenty of copper, but it may be too hard and too expensive to get. Or there may not be as much quality ore down there than they think.

Mining is a tough business. It’s hard to open a mine. They cost a lot of money up front. And until there is a steady stream of ore processing and thus a steady sale of the mineral product most mines lose money early in their lifespan. Once the cash flow comes then you have a decent business. But commodity prices are volatile and subject to a lot of odd market shocks and even a money-making mine can suddenly become an expensive burden.

Mining is hard on the environment. And the water and power requirements are usually enormous. Mines are typically far from civilization and thus transport and infrastructure impacts are large. Mining companies have a lousy track record on environmental issues, and are often even worse when it comes to labor and community relations.

The Green New Deal is going to require one hell of a lot of copper. Obviously EVs will drive much of that demand. All of the push toward renewable energy and increased electrification will depend on an abundant supply of copper.

Copper demand is expected to increase by 50% in the next twenty years. That means ten million more tonnes of copper per year! In fact, a five million tonne deficit is expected by 2030. The mining industry will have to invest perhaps $100 billion dollars in the next ten years to meet rising demand.

It is hard to locate copper deposits. The easy-to-find ones are already being exploited. There is a massive copper region in Arizona but there is a lot of opposition to developing that resource. We need the stuff, but it’s a mess to get and leaves a big mess behind so people are (rightly) suspicious of mining companies.

So, what to do? We need to “go green” but it’s going to cost us. Are we ready to pay?

I want my car to drive itself. I really do. I’d love to say “take me to the ski park, robot-driver!” and arrive there safely after a smooth and quiet drive.

But it’s not going to happen. Autonomous vehicles are here, and here to stay, but they won’t make it on America’s roads any time soon. Mining companies use self-driving trucks, for example, but they drive around where there aren’t a lot of people or other hazards. That’s not the case in American cities or on American roads. The self-driving car in the typical American driving setting is a futuristic fantasy. Oh, it will happen. Just not fast enough for any of us to really care.

This is a blow to America’s Biggest Blow-hard Elon Musk and his army of Twitter-Bros who lap up all his idiotic utterances. Tesla just announced they won’t be upgrading their latest Autopilot software. Why? Because it is a piece of shit. Tesla’s cars don’t self-drive and their “driver-assist” features are no better than ones from any other car manufacturer.

Speaking of car manufacturing, Tesla makes 500,000 vehicles per year. They just agreed to sell 100,000 Model 3s to Hertz and that caused their stock price to jump and the company valuation to briefly top one trillion dollars.

VW sells over nine million vehicles per year, Toyota sells about seven million, GM about the same, and Ford about four million. Yet Tesla is more valuable! Why? Because people love the bullshit Musk and minions are spewing. Elon says he will grow the business by 50% every year and will soon be selling twenty million cars per annum.

Bullshit. There’s not enough copper in the world to make that many EVs. There’s probably not enough nickel or cobalt or lithium either, but I’ll stick with what I know. And there isn’t enough copper for that many cars. And 50% growth is unsustainable. It may in fact be un-achievable in that industry.

But people are still “betting on the come” with Musk and Tesla. Hey, it’s their money. If they think that fatuous jerk can make them rich they’ve missed the point. Musk is really good at getting people to give him money. In fact, he’s the best in the world at that skill. But the money goes to HIM. He doesn’t distribute that wealth. His companies don’t pay dividends, for example. You’d think a trillion-dollar company would reward its shareholders with nice payouts, but you’d be wrong. Elon cares about Elon, and his worshipful followers can go fuck themselves.

A Tesla looks like a pretty nice car. I’m sure it is a decent value for the money. But it is not going to transform the world. I’m reminded of Apple Computer and their early Macintosh ads. They were going to change the world, too. We were all going to “think different.” But then we found out that a Mac is still just a computer, nothing more.

And a Tesla is just a car.

I’ve been told Elon Musk is a “visionary” and I figured out what that means. It means someone who ignores basic physics. And engineering. And accounting. It means someone who says fantastic things and has followers who accept them unconditionally. Sounds like a great job!

If you want your car to run on auto-pilot, hire a chauffeur.