One of the reasons that energy costs go up over time is that it gets harder to extract a resource as it gets depleted. The oil that was close to the surface or in easily accessible sites was pumped out first. These days we need deeper wells. Or wells in crazy places like the Arctic or the open ocean. And we have to employ new methods like hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”).

The low-hanging fruit has been picked.

This is an issue for any resource. Minerals are no exception. Here’s a bit from an Allianz Research trade report (Metals and Mining: Do we live in a material world?):

“Furthermore, as accessible high-grade deposits become rare, mining companies are increasingly targeting deeper or lower-grade deposits, which require more sophisticated, hazardous and costly extraction techniques.”

If you can’t grow it, you have to mine it. But it is getting harder, and it takes longer. The “green energy” transition will require enormous investments in mines and minerals. That’s going to require planning ahead as the lead times are significant. Take a look at the chart below. Mines are big, messy, complex things with a lot of impacts. And the industry hasn’t done much to win the public’s trust so you can understand the pushback in the form of increased regulations.

Of course we could always just get our minerals from mines in the third world, or places where there is little or no oversight. But miners don’t like to invest in sketchy places. They like law and order. They want to keep their properties and their profits. Here at home we have the regulations in place so that we can mine intelligently. And we have courts and rules and banks and everything else for businesses to prosper.

So, let’s get those shovels in the ground already!