. . . same as the old geopolitics.

In the end, it all comes down to molecules. You can talk all you want and imagine anything you want but in order to DO anything you have to have STUFF.

Food is stuff. It has to be grown. Everything else has to be mined. None of that is free. It takes human labor, human ingenuity, human tools and technology, and human societies and institutions. That doesn’t just cost dollars or dinars or rubles or riyals.

It costs energy. And that means molecules. Molecules of natural gas. Molecules of crude oil. Molecules of radioisotopes. Molecules of silicon. Molecules of water falling over dams.

And we have to make more molecules. Molecules of fertilizer. Molecules of industrial chemicals. And all the rest of the stuff we need for life like steel and plastics and aluminum and concrete and etc.

Here’s a thought experiment: let’s constrict the flow of world energy and world molecules (i.e., stuff and stuff-that-makes-stuff) by, I don’t know, one-fourth. Twenty-five (25%) percent.

OK, so let’s think: will this make things better?

No, it won’t.

We have mostly been insulated here at home from the costs of war. We’ve gone to war in Kuwait, Iraq, and Afghanistan over the last thirty years and the American consumer has not felt any pain from those misadventures. In fact, the US economy is so big that even Korea and Vietnam did little more than increase the national debt. Folks at home didn’t feel it in the pocketbook. (Contrast that to WWII rationing of gas, rubber, meat, etc. We were on a “war footing.”)

This time it is different. This time there is a disconnect between the public conduct of the war and the reality for the American consumer and the world economy. Americans are seeing higher prices everywhere and those increases are just the beginning. Countries dependent on Mideast supplies of oil and fertilizer are really hurting. There are shortages, rationing, and even protests across the world. Food production will take a major hit in already-struggling economies.

The Trump Cult will claim this is good for America because now everyone will have to “buy from us.”

Their definition of “good for America” is “corporate profits.” Yes, some of our oil companies, chemical companies, and their ancillary industries will see a surge in revenues. Hooray! All that bombing, all that expended ordnance, all that jet fuel we burned was worth it. All those people we killed and things we destroyed are totally worth it if our economy benefits, right?

But those benefits will accrue only to a few. They won’t “trickle down” to the rest of us. The Most Holy & Sacred Reagan/Friedman Supply-Side Economics Doctrine that demands our slavish adherence no matter what will fail us this time.

There’s only so many molecules. When we restrict their supply, their costs go up. The demand will continue to increase. After all, people need stuff. Some short-term profit-takers will get a big, fat payout. But the rest of us will take it in the shorts. If some European or Asian country is willing to pay a premium for US oil or US finished products like gas or diesel then why would US companies sell it at a lower price to US consumers?

In the old days, the royals, the aristos, the mercantilists and other power-brokers manipulated global trade and markets for their own aggrandizement. They sold it, of course, as “good for the nation.” The British East India Company was all about profit. They never gave a shit about workers, citizens, and ordinary people. They didn’t give a shit about the political fallout of their actions as long as the books were in the black.

It’s 200 years later but the dynamic is the same. The War in Iran is a fucking disaster. But empty tankers are racing across the ocean to US ports in order to load up with our shit and sell it at a premium to starved markets, so it’s OK. After all, only losers would fail to take advantage of this great business opportunity!

If we have strategic objectives, assuming Demented Don has any sort of overall plan, I’m sure the US military is capable of accomplishing them. But the cost will be very high. Waging war from afar with long-range weapons and high-altitude aircraft, or impersonal war with drones, is easy. We don’t see the bloodied bodies (at least not ours) on the TV news. It unfortunately emboldens our “leaders” and encourages their grandiose geopolitical ambitions. But escalation will make the war more personal. And harder. And not only will our service members get hurt, so will our consumer economy.

How long will Trump Cultists allow this to continue? The only meaningful chance of ending this war is if Republicans in the House and Senate tell the White House “no more.” What are the odds of that happening? Everyone of those pusillanimous, self-centered assholes has tied his fortune and his political future to Trump and they are terrified of defying him.

Most likely the only beneficiaries of this war will be Russia and China. Russian oil and natural gas will flow again to Europe. China’s huge power build-out of the last few decades and its enormous investments in renewables, batteries, drones, EVs, and other modern technology will protect it from oil shocks. Plus both countries’ militaries have gotten a really good look at the American Way of War. They’ve seen our equipment, our methods, and our doctrines operate in real time. That’s good for them. Is it good for us?

The losers will be Iran and the Gulf States. And Lebanon of course, thanks to Israel. And the US. We will lose, too. Life will cost more. Our international standing will be in tatters. Our military arsenals will be depleted. Our country’s politics will be even further polarized.

Maybe somebody can tell me all the good stuff this war will accomplish. Maybe I’m just clueless. Leave me a note in the comments.