For most of human history fertilizer was shit. Literally. You couldn’t go down to your local nursery and get a bag of N-P-K. You used what people always used—animal dung. Sometimes human dung. People ate shit for millenia.

In the 19th century bird droppings (guano) of enormous depths were “discovered” on islands off the coast of Peru. This stuff was great fertilizer and was soon in huge demand. The US in fact annexed the islands and guano fueled the Industrial Age.

In the 20th century German industrial chemists invented processes for synthesizing ammonia. “Artificial” fertilizers were born and the world was forever changed.

Today we no longer eat shit. We eat fossil fuels. Without copious supplies of methane (natural gas), the feedstock of the fertilizer industry, the world would starve. Well, those of us in rich countries will pay more for food. Those folks in poor countries will bear the brunt of the suffering. The only people who will literally starve will be people already facing food shortages.

About a third of the world’s fertilizer trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. The Iran War has of course disrupted that. This will really hit Asia and Africa, but the US is experiencing price shocks as well. Your food is going to cost more going forward. Even if the Strait opens tomorrow, the ripple effects will continue. US farmers will keep paying more for fuel (especially diesel) and fertilizer and they’ll have to pass those costs on to you.

Wars always have consequences that are either unanticipated by the belligerents or, in this case, of little concern to them. Our “leaders” have made it clear that American consumers will simply have to suck it up and bear the costs. Not only at the supermarket and the gas station but in the cost of life overall. How do you think we’ll pay for a $1.5 trillion dollar war-making budget? We’ll pay for it by cutting government services like health care, income aid, education, environmental protection, etc. In the old guns-vs.-butter debate, we are choosing guns.

“American Gothic” indeed.